HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) - A new WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll shows Democrat Josh Shapiro leading Republican Doug Mastriano by double-digits.
In the poll of 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters, Shapiro received 50.6% support, more than 10% higher than Mastriano at 40.5%. Approximately 6.5% said they were undecided and 2.3% picked a third-party candidate.
Since August, Shapiro has extended his three point lead over Mastriano to ten points.
Regardless of who they support, 61% of voters surveyed believed Shapiro would win the governorship.
More Republicans reported being likely to support Shapiro than Democrats said they would support Mastriano. According to the poll, 15.2% of Republicans said they'll support Shapiro compared to 8% of Democrats voting for Mastriano.
Shapiro led among all ranges of education except those with a high school degree or less. Shapiro's largest lead was among post-graduate school degree holders with 67% support.
Among age groups, Shapiro led all ranges, though Mastriano was within the margin of error for voters 50-64 years old. Mastriano and Shapiro were virtually tied among support between caucasian and Hispanic voters, while Shapiro had a 65% lead among African Americans.
“Since last month, President Biden’s approval in Pennsylvania has increased by four points and his disapproval has dropped by six. This movement in favor of Democrats is not seen evenly in the race for US Senate and Governor, where Fetterman’s race is tightening and Shapiro’s lead is extending,” Kimball said.
Eighty-three percent of voters find it somewhat important (18%) or very important (65%) for the candidates running for either Governor or US Senate to participate in a debate prior to the November election. Seventeen percent find it not too important (11%) or not at all important (6%).
At this time Shapiro and Mastriano have not agreed to a debate.
President Biden holds a 43% approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 51% disapprove of the job he is doing.
“Since last month, President Biden’s approval in Pennsylvania has increased by four points and his disapproval has dropped by six. This movement in favor of Democrats is not seen evenly in the race for US Senate and Governor, where Fetterman’s race is tightening and Shapiro’s lead is extending,” Kimball said.
In a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump leads Biden among Pennsylvania voters 46% to 45%; 6% would support someone else and 3% are undecided.
Concerning the recent FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate makes them more or less likely to support Trump in 2024, 38% say it makes them more likely to support the former President, 33% say it makes them less likely to support Trump in 2024, and 29% say it makes no difference on their vote.
The economy is the most important issue for 39% of Pennsylvania voters, followed by threats to democracy (14%), and abortion access (13%).
Voters were asked if the forgiving of $10,000 of student loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 make them more or less likely to vote in the 2022 elections. Forty-seven percent are either much more likely (40%) or somewhat more likely (7%) to vote, while 47% say it makes no difference on their vote.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted September 23-26, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, web survey via email, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
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